The Anatomy of a “Clutch” Win

For as analytically driven of a sport as baseball has become, a remarkable amount of it comes down to pure luck. Hit a screaming line drive right at someone? Sorry, your average goes down. Throw six innings without allowing an earned run? Too bad, enjoy the loss thanks to factors beyond your control.

A good way to study how those events shape a game is by looking for inflection points, or moments determined largely by chance that, when viewed from further back, go on to determine the outcome of a game. These are present in every game, but magnified further the closer the score gets. Just one of those seemingly innocuous moments could end up being the deciding factor. Sometimes, many of them need to go your way in order for you to get an otherwise impossible win.

All this is to say, the Mat-Su Miners are currently the luckiest baseball team I have ever seen.

Winning six games in a row is hard enough, but winning six games in which the score was within a run entering the eighth inning – five of which finished within that margin – is ludicrous. And yet, that is exactly what the Miners have done since dropping below .500 on July 11. The latest victory, a 4-3 ninth-inning comeback over the Peninsula Oilers, is a perfect case study into how the Miners suddenly transformed into the ice-blooded walk-off machine they have become.

First, Mat-Su's starting pitcher. Ryan Peterson has often been involved in close games, most of which have not gone the Miners' way. At 2.32, the Sam Houston State Bearkat's ERA is among the league's best, right at home in the ABL's best rotation. And yet, his 1-2 record seems odd for the supposed ace of the league's best staff. Peterson hasn't allowed more than three earned runs in a start all year. However, his team's offense has managed an abysmal 3.0 runs per game to support him, nearly two runs fewer than normal. How would he fare against Peninsula, a team coming off being no-hit on the previous night?

Peterson begins the game somewhat shakily, walking a batter and hitting another. However, catcher Brandyn Durand lets a ball get by him to advance the runners, which led to a Max Roffwarg RBI single to plate an unearned run. After that, the next few innings go without incident, with both Peterson and Oilers counterpart Cody New facing the minimum through their next five combined frames. In the fourth, Durand again lets a passed ball aid Colin Robson in advancing to third before Roffwarg drives in his second unearned run on a sac fly.

If Durand had kept either of those pitches in front of him, the game would have completely changed. But he didn't, so on we go.

All the while, Mat-Su had failed to plate a single run, or even complete more than three plate appearances in an inning. This would continue until the fifth, when Durand smacked a single to lead off against New which did not at all foreshadow anything to come. This brings us to inflection point number two.

Durand reaches second due to a New wild pitch – the first and only such incident for either side in the game. Dom Patrizi follows that up with a single, and Durand, despite having just one stolen base all season, decides to try to score from second. Against all odds, he does, with right fielder Aiden Sullivan (a name to remember) simply tossing the ball toward the infield rather than attempt to throw out the Mat-Su catcher.

If Sullivan had come up gunning, the game would have completely changed. But he didn't, so on we go.

For our next key moment, we need to wait precisely two more outs. That fifth inning had devolved into a nightmare for New, who allowed a single and a walk to load the bases, then walked Chase Wilcox to tie the game. With the bases loaded and two outs, Drake Kerr had a chance to blow the game wide open. The Miners center fielder hit the last pitch of New's day on a frozen rope down the right field line. Sullivan, having perhaps squandered a chance to prevent a run earlier in the inning, then saves at least two more with an incredible diving catch.

If that ball had gotten by him, the game would have completely changed. But it didn't, so on we go.

In spite of the bad luck, Peterson came out to pitch the sixth now the owner of a tied game, though it wouldn't last. The Oilers pounced on the ailing Mat-Su starter for one more run on a Zakary Farris single. Peterson struck out the last two batters he saw to escape the jam with no further damage, but his day was done.

Inflection point number four involves his successor, star Miners reliever Ben DeTaeye (2-0). The Iowa Hawkeye had not allowed an earned run since July 11 (coincidentally, also the last time his squad had lost a game). Like Peterson, however, DeTaeye looked wobbly at first. A leadoff walk and subsequent Patrizi error led to a pair of Oilers baserunners. We now transition back to the present tense as Cole Dawson comes to the plate.

The Miners live and die by the bunt this season. While Kerr is the poster child of the move, hitters up and down the lineup have begun to use the sacrifice bunt to great effect this season. What wasn't apparent until Saturday, however, was the opposite of that effect; not only can the Miners bunt effectively, they can also defend against it. Enter, Dawson. The Peninsula third baseman attempts a sacrifice bunt to advance the runners, but DeTaeye fields it with enough time to potentially make a play. He makes the split-second decision to throw to third to try to retire the lead runner. By a matter of inches, he does.

If the throw was late or offline, the game would have completely changed. But it didn't, so on we go.

Now with one out, DeTaeye didn't get a chance to savor it for much longer. Robson hit a single just hard enough to cause the leading runner to hold up at third base. With a one-run deficit to maintain, DeTaeye now had to navigate out of a bases-loaded, one out jam. Incredibly, he did, striking out Eddie Leon and coaxing a weak Roffwarg ground out to leave three Oilers on base.

The game proceeded quietly, but stressfully, from there. Heading into the bottom of the ninth, DeTaeye had done his job, keeping Peninsula off the scoreboard and maintaining a one-run deficit for the offense to handle. If you clicked on this, you know that Mat-Su will indeed overcome that hole and win the game in this inning, but how it happened is worth a closer look.

Nicolai Arbach (0-2) had entered the game after New's near-miss and allowed just one his across his three full innings of work. For the Miners to kickstart their attack, they needed a shot in the arm, something that would bypass a long, slow, stressful rally and get the hard part over with.

They needed Brandyn Durand.

Few things can change a baseball game more quickly than a home run. Just one swing of the bat does what three singles or four walks or any combination of small plays can do, but in an instant. They are the ultimate inflection point. So it's only appropriate that Durand, who let the ball get past him for the first such moment, and legged out an RBI single for the second, now cranks a 1-0 fastball over the left field fence to tie the game.

If Durand hadn't delivered, the game would have completely changed. But he did, so when Ryan Cochran singled, Nick Bisaccia walked, Arbach was removed from the game, Christian Perez reached on an error, and Chase Wilcox singled, the Mat-Su Miners won their sixth game in a row, clinched the season series over Peninsula, and moved to just two games back of the ABL-leading Anchorage Bucs.

Those Bucs play host to the Miners tomorrow at 2 PM AKDT in Anchorage. To follow the action, head down to Mulcahy Stadium or tune in to the Mat-Su Miners' YouTube channel.

And when you do, don't miss a second. When inflection points happen, they're sometimes easy to miss.

Charlie Fellows, 2024 Broadcaster
Mat-Su Miners